
I've been reading some of the work of Ray Solomonoff, having come across him in the context of Kolmogorov complexity/algorithmic information, and I like this (from The Discovery of Algorithmic Probability, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 55, 73-88 (1997)):

From The Independent on Saturday (in the print edition, I can't find it online):
The Large Hadron Collide...the possibility that it could create an apocalyptic black hole... . One estimate has put the chance at 1 in 1,019.No votes yet

Dan Wallach has written an interesting paper comparing the risks of using various electronic voting systems.
"Abstract
Any voting system must be designed to resist a variety of failures, ranging from inadvertent

John Mueller, Department of Political Science, Ohio State University wrote a terrific paper outlining a cost benefit analysis of US homeland security earlier this year.

I'm currently reading J. G . Roederer "Information and its role in nature" and need to somewhere to record notes. I'll do it here.
(This is, even more than usual, really only addressed to myself. I might come back to edit this post, to add more notes as I go along.)

I'm currently reading J. G . Roederer "Information and its role in nature" and need to somewhere to record notes. I'll do it here.
(This is even more than usual, really only addressed to myself. I might come back to edit this post, to add more notes as I go along.)

(based on a discussion with Chris Hoeckley, Kevin Sharpe, Jim Taylor and David Vander Laan)
I. Simple-minded question about logical methodology: Why do we bother to recognize induction as a separate category of inference? Why not treat all inferences as deductive, but with a probabilistic qualification built into the conclusions of some of them?